Indian Economy is looking-up with brighter prospects amongst the world’s major economies today. The Economic Survey 2014-15 presented by the Finance Minister Shri Arun Jaitley to the Parliament today indicates that a clear political mandate for reform and a benign external environment now is expected to propel India on to a double digit trajectory. It states that Indian economy appears to have now gone past the economic slowdown, persistent inflation, elevated fiscal deficit, slackening domestic demand, external account imbalances and oscillating value of the rupee.
The Economic Survey taking into consideration the change of base year by the Central Statistics Office of the National Accounts series from 2004-05 to 2011-12, states that growth at market prices for 2015-16 is expected to be 8.1-to 8.5 per cent.
The growth rate in GDP at constant (2011-12) market prices in 2012-13 was 5.1 per cent, which increased to 6.9 percent in 2013-14 and it is expected to further increase to 7.4 per cent in 2014-15 (According to advanced estimates). The change in methodology by the Central Statistics Office has also introduced the concept of Gross Value Added (GVA) at the aggregate and various sectoral levels.
The Survey report also commended the far reaching changes brought about on the issue of sharing of revenues between the Centre and States as recommended by the 14th Finance Commission.
The expected high growth rate in the coming year in the favourable economic environment has created a historic movement of opportunity to propel India into a double-digit growth trajectory to attain the fundamental objective of “wiping every tear from every eye” of the vulnerable and poor people of the country, the survey says. It also gives an opportunity to the increasingly young, middle-class and aspirational India to realize its full potential. As the new Government is to present its first full year budget, the Economic Survey states that it appears that India has reached a sweet spot and that there is a scope for Big Bang reforms now.
The growth estimates of over 8 per cent for the current year is on expectations that the monsoon will be favourable, as it was forecast to be normal, compared to last year. However the growth rate in Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices in agriculture is projected to decline from 3.7 per cent in 2013-14, an exceptionally good previous year from the point of view of rainfall, to 1.1 per cent in 2014-15, the current year with not-so-favourable monsoon.